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Covid-19 Revolution (sub-title: Nite time read for the elderly) book review.

Khairy Jamaluddin, the sharp Malaysian cabinet minister stressed on 10 July 2021: “Malaysia should change way it looks at daily Covid-19 cases as more get vaccinated. Malaysia should be prepared to change the way it reacts to the high daily number of Covid-19 cases and instead switch its attention to the hospitalization and death rates.”

Part One extract of Covid-19 Revolution: As at 31 May 2020 new COVID-19 cases remained at second digits. It dipped to single digits three days in a row in June and subsequently the third wave starting from 20 September led to above 1300 new cases for some days in November 2020.

There is no cure for patients inflected with the virus. By all means intensely treat breathing difficulties, severe cough and flu as done before even without Covid-19. Millions are spent by the Malaysian government on Covid-19 testing, now more millions planned for vaccines and the involved logistics. Ought not some of the millions be put to care for those affected by breathing difficulties, cough and and flu, and only then as a next prudent step carry out Covid-19 tests and track all confirmed cases after discharge? There must be increased resources and centers of treatment because the country’s capacity to accommodate active cases were now just a hair under 40,000 in mid-February 2021.

As at the end of the second week of February 2021, Malaysia’s Covid-19 cases stood at 264,269 with deaths reaching 965 or 0.36%. Interestingly the data includes current 49,490 active cases which means the recorded cumulative cases without deaths can be taken as 214,799.

Cumulative total recovered and discharged cases reached 213,814, making the real or Effectual Recovery Rate 99.54% (213,814 / 214,799) against the nominal recovery rate of 80.9% (213,814 / 264,269).

Against this backdrop, Aristo stressed (on 3 February 2020) in his blog, Hope Tribute Malaysia: The Effectual Recovery Rate 99.5% ought to be the lead indicator which has not significantly changed since 22.12.20 when it was first measured to be 99.4%. As long as it does not deteriorate and the economy improves public interest can be deemed as the priority of cabinet actions.

Measures to contain the domestic spread of the coronavirus, combined with weak investment and low tourism receipts and the like due to the pandemic, have significantly reduced economic activity by 31.3.2020.

Policy makers must revive the economy by increasing aggregate demand such as public and private consumption and investment. The entrepreneur development division under the Ministry of Entrepreneur Development should be proactive and present to the cabinet committee developments to promote employment in small businesses and the services sector to break the vicious cycle of reduced demand due to the rising unemployment factor leading to further GDP reduction.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which employ the bulk of daily wage earners must not be devastated. The Ministry of Entrepreneur Development must take action to ensure that SMEs are not stymied with slow roll-out of programs.

Costs of vaccine related logistics and lock-down measures as well as policing have opportunity costs. Would even half of the trajectory costs be better allocated to medical centers equipped with ventilators and the bed capacity of the nation increased to treat active cases? The effectual recovery rate in Malaysia is about 99.5% and this key statistic must not worsen.

In Part Four, strategic planning to keep the pandemic in check in Malaysia is appended. There are three lines of action.

Even up to 20 June 2021 the Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was emphasizing that Malaysia’s target to achieve herd immunity as projected by the national recovery plan (NRP) can be completed as scheduled following the increase in the supply of Covid-19 vaccines by the country’s major suppliers. He reckoned that by working harder to achieve herd immunity the National Alliance government could proclaim political success.

The politicians against him stressed the need for parliament to be reconvene as if they had ideas and strategies for eradication of the disease or to help the economy recover.

Even with more stringent lockdowns new covid-19 cases have risen to above 6000. What’s to become of the benchmark 4000 before restrictions are relaxed? Can NRP stipulated condition that the number of daily cases is below 2,000 for phase 3 and daily cases below 500 ever be reached?

A System Concept framework can facilitate policy execution to be more transparent and enforcement units will conform more effectively to reduce corruption. Without a proper implementation framework we have little basis for effectual review and evaluation – a major policy making pitfall. Khairy or someone else, rather than calling for a superman a structural change is needed.

Increased new cases do not mean that deaths will increase proportionately. If the facilities are up to mark for caring of the infected people deaths will be contained, thus the effectual recovery rate is more reflective of recorded cumulative cases without deaths and should be the primary indicator.

New cases hit more than 9000 on 9.7.21. Let’s have a structural change instead of a flight of fantasy.