Outlier economic and global outlook

Post #1 is a summary of some past business write-ups with updated viewpoints and includes world events developments. The posting has 3 parts.

The now deleted recent category “Outlier economic and bespoke investing outlook” had replaced the earlier “Bespoke Investing on Hold Money” and “Community and socio-economic upliftment” categories.

Outlier economic and bespoke investing outlook

Bridging the former “Bespoke Investing on Hold Money” category, it retained the tilt of growing wealth becoming meaningful if we intend to realize the abundant life. With the hash tag “Clearing the fog of the ups and downs in gold investing” Bespoke feature #29 (6.3.19) provides a closure on gold investing

Bespoke Investing on hold money page: Bespoke investing stems from usage of the word “bespeak” as in meaning “to arrange the specifics of action (or making something) in advance before engaging the motions of actually doing (taking action or actually begin to make or go into production)” and “bespoke investing” in short is the opposite of off-the-rack investing purely in pursuit of maximizing gains and tracking the R.O.I. on investment outlays over a period of time.

new bespoke investing logo

Thusly, there are some wasted words but “shoo, scramble away, don’t bother anymore with why call it bespoke investing”. Understanding its approach though is worth a second and third absorbing. Reading the posts on Hope Tribute Malaysia published between 11 January and 9 March of 2016 is a must otherwise you will miss the nuances and other subtleties of its structure and core values.

In the following updates, we have appended as highlights so there is no need for new readers to peruse the early featured articles. The postings of introductory articles have been deleted since 19.9.18.

Bespoke investing newsletter posts and feature articles:  a) Gold Investment Article 1 was published on 11/1/16. Article 2 (Part 1 to 4) from Feb to Mar 2016.  b) Bespoke gold investing feature #1 to #9 were published in 2016, before the election of Donald Trump.

1st and interim article before Article 2 highlightsDespite deflation and all the problems in the world, in general commodities as tangible assets can come roaring back. If you are among the savvy you take heed now. What goes up eventually goes down and what goes down eventually goes up.

When the charts flash sell signals, is it the top? Read everyone, stay on top of the literature and the indexes. If you have intimate knowledge of a certain sector because of it falls within your skills-range, dabble in it with your own crystal ball because everything is a projection. You might follow the comments of pundits but you must do your own research. Just read, analyze and make your own decisions is the theme and benefit which will accrue with the forth coming second article on investing.

When the going is good in the equity market get out of all your long stock positions. Are you selling before the top is reached? Don’t know and you should not care. You take your profits and put them into another asset class which are dirt cheap. Meanwhile this first article solidifies the adage of “buying low and selling high is the key to any successful investment plan”

Delusions of grandeur crown my musings this 12 February 2016 Friday night. The uncouth headlines of cyberspace financial newsletters read “Yen, Rates, Oil, Stock s Go ‘Nuts’ Globally”; “Blood in the streets” with regards to stock markets around the world in free fall.

Gold Investment Article 2 (Part 1 to Part 4) highlightsYes we need to be prudent because invariably everything is a projection. In respect of gold the trading week ending 25 February 2016 the trending converges into a classic bullish pennant. There will be a breakout after short run price consolidation, or so it appears to be (You must do your own crystal balling). Hold money is the usual term used in the casino world to describe the amount of money you have in hand when you start punting on any given day or gambling session. Losing it all should not disrupt your lifestyle or responsibilities as a breadwinner and parent and such if you are prudent.

. . . For me, in 2011 my hold money was MYR9,000. So what was the R.O.I. on the hold money? A measly 19.4% p.a. was one outcome. From a carried over balance of 10 grams of gold I started to engage lady luck with an additional 5 grams on 25 November 2009 when Public Bank (pbb) gold investment quotes were around MYR144 per gram.

. . . In Part 1 we pluck from the prudent-tinged air MYR9,000 as the hold money. If you are one of those who do not blink with daily MYR100 pittance on family meals alone multiply that sum by 5 or 10 times. Remember this is in context of “Losing it all should not disrupt your lifestyle or family responsibilities”. Being prudent is imperative if our viewpoint is that strictly embarking in speculation is not noble but humans are such that a little of “evil on the side” oils the mechanics of raising needed capital by enterprises as one of the factors of economics supply and nurturing innovation in the grand scheme of things.

Let’s look to “Machiavellianism” and reaffirm the mechanics of capital supply and demand as an enabler for the efficient allocation of resources to meet the community needs and wants. This principle when applied in long-term investments, gold’s fundamental value will be far higher than $1,700 per ounce perhaps far exceeding $1,900 reached in 2011. . . The MYR4.115 rate to the greenback was only around 0.3% up on the 2 March 2016 rate. Crude oil at USD36.36/barrel was 6.8% higher than 2 Mar USD34.04. The correlation between the forex and crude oil is at times far from proportional.

Article #1 prompting “read everyone, stay on top of the literature and the indexes . . . If you have intimate knowledge of a certain sector because it falls within your skills-range, dabble in it with your own crystal ball because everything is a projection”. We now add that you also need to bottom-line specific analysis summations. Variables such as crude oil price ups and downs, forex and geopolitics need to be monitored but actual local gold quotes and your particular gold holdings circumstance are to be higher weighted.

. . . Let’s elaborate on the above prognosis. Firstly, picture yourself watching a movie with an investing theme. You might be rooting for a main character’s portfolio positions amid swaying indexes and changing environmental factors but the outcome has no bearing on your life, not altering your state of repose. I term this “impartial third party observation stance” and it helps us have a better bird-eye view.

The tranquility in life affects your role as a breadwinner, parent caring son or daughter as well as a responsible employer or diligent worker. It has everything to do with upholding your “amanah” with God. It’s a trust between you and your maker and no one else or community (even close family opinions) norms must matter. Starting with being honest to yourself it is the pathway to realize the abundant life in the worldly life.

In context of bespoke investing we have set our prudent orientation to ensure that losing all of our hold money will not affect the abundant life we journey along with occasional hardships, afflictions and adverse conditions during calamities and natural disasters. Everything in this world has its place and for us to have the abundant life is to find and be in our set place in the overall grand schemes of things and the Almighty’s providence.

. . . The telling tale for the above narrative in context of gold holdings, some selling transactions and “proforma gains” is that even with due diligence outcomes do not often resemble winning whoppers. The economics opportunity cost precept comes into play in sorting out the winners and losers, thus the importance of really bias tilting to investing in asset classes within our current range of data availability and analysis expertise – after all the governing economics principles specify the free flow and availability of information and restriction free alternative best options to place our financial resources.

. . . Malaysia’s Permodalan Nasional Berhad constantly provides to their account holders of various investment funds payouts of in between 5% to 9%. In Malaysia the opportunity cost option can be dividends from risk-free trust funds schemes.

. . . Our “Gold Investment Article 1 in Hope Tribute Malaysia on 11/1/16 wanted all and sundry to understand that do read the comments of pundits but you must just peruse, do your own research, analyze and make your own decisions. But being a prudent bespoke investor with limited funds the way forward is carry cash for the next legs up.

When will that happen? Use your own crystal ball. I rather shackle up in awaiting mode for averaging down on any gold holdings for now. Still, if it does not occur we have the cash to average up in likely two or three stage next legs up. China continues to heap up on gold while the manipulated low price persists. Bespoke investing on hold money keeps a running total of the lengths, and if we miss a few, que sera sera.

. . . Yes “Bespoke Investing on Hold Money” will branch out from purely precious gold being the niche “circle of competence” so stay tuned in, if only you intend to realize the abundant life. It has to be in that context by which growing wealth becomes meaningful.

The early postings by date and category: The original category are now converted to tags.

Not to clothe in general-anesthetic jargon, what the heck is “hold money”? This is precisely the reasoning that you need to be conversant with the early postings on gold investment because certain terminologies have special nuances. They simply are preferred because they provoke the reality you need to face off in the world of investing entrapment.

The Bespoke Investing featured articles are easily accessible in the Outlier economic and bespoke investing outlook category. Let’s now look at some extracts of Bespoke gold investing feature #1 to #9.

Bespoke gold investing feature #2 (18/3/16):

The ups and downs are just nice trivial sequences to our 3rd party impartial stance. We shall keep our balance 58% hold money, thank you. This is what Bespoke Investing in precious gold is all about – being prudent and relishing repose in the abundant life.

Bespoke gold investing feature #4:

Our 1st Bespoke feature hinted that world gold price consolidation could mean waiting till the end of the March. Do we now continue to carry the already expended investment outlay? Let’s firstly (instead) consolidate the bespoke way.

Our “Gold Investment Article 1 in Hope Tribute Malaysia on 11/1/16 wanted all and sundry to understand that do read the comments of pundits but you must just peruse, do your own research, analyze and make your own decisions. Re “Article 2 (Part 1) on 26/2/16 we stressed that we need to be prudent because invariably everything is a projection. A technical classic bullish pennant indicated a price breakout after short run price consolidation, or so it appears to be (You must do your own crystal balling).

Bespoke gold investing feature #6: Que Sera Sera, for all the tracking lengths

The upshot guidance is for gold to be soundly on the upside the precious metal must burst out of the USD1200 per ounce area and touch USD1300, more specifically meaning closing price of above that level at least for a week. Face the fact that there is no immediate upside action for any differing scenario.

The daily price movements of course do fan your emotions. You lose if emotions are not under control. The current swings within a USD60 or USD70 quantum range is best left to high volume day traders. I sense that precious gold at present is in pullback. It might very well consolidate to near USD1200 or slightly below. Well USD100 is not a very worrisome amount when the long term upside could be easily above USD1800 and even surpass historic USD1900s highs to touch USD2500 before 2020. If you are a Warren Buffet, yes. But being a prudent bespoke investor with limited funds the way forward is carry cash for the next legs up.

When will that happen? Use your own crystal ball. I rather shackle up in awaiting mode for averaging down on any gold holdings for now. Still, if it does not occur we have the cash to average up in likely two or three stage next legs up. China continues to heap up on gold while the manipulated low price persists. Bespoke investing on hold money keeps a running total of the lengths, and if we miss a few, que sera sera.

Bespoke gold investing feature #8:

In Bespoke Investing feature #7 we highlighted the views of a few pundits. Continuing from those views, Pundit E has a view that gold worth as a currency is higher than the current world price. The balance sheets of the largest central banks have expanded by 300% in the last ten years and gold by 200% based on aboveground physical stocks in value terms. The pundit argues that gold could be tagged at USD750/oz (short of historic gold USD1900/oz highs). As such we could look forward to gold price next legs up, perhaps in November or December 2016.

Pundit F advises investors to stay away from US stocks and focus on US$ and “cyclical equities” of EAFE (acronym for Europe, Austrasia and the Far East). On 15/8 record high Dow 18,664 points now has only slightly dipped to 5/10 close of 18,281 points. On 2/9 Dow closed at 18,491 points. Generally gold will fare better as stocks weaken.

Pundit G argues that capitalism cannot function well at the zero bound interest rate. $11 trillion of negative yielding bonds are in fact liabilities. Pundit H says Europe could soon have its own “Lehman Moment” with its biggest banks going bust. One central bank has only a 25 basis-point rate cut left in its armor.

The US Fed appears to be set for increasing rates which is supposedly good for bank profits when they can piggy-back lend money at higher long-term rates. Their profitability shoots up on borrowing cheap funds from depositors or bond buyers at low short-term rates. In Malaysia you can expect a steep curve. When all rates rise, the long-term rates rise faster for instance on housing mortgages and further than short-term rates paid to depositors. Elsewhere the spread might not be so wide and that spells trouble with the curve.

Bespoke gold investing feature #9:

In fact our present gold holding is a mere token 1 gram costing us about MYR173 out of our hold money of MYR2,000.00 established on 28/2/16 in Part 2 of our Gold Investing Article 2. In Part 1 of the article we had pluck from the prudent-tinged air MYR9000 as the hold money. If you are one of those who do not blink with daily MYR100 pittance on family meals alone multiply that sum by 5 or 10 times. Remember this is in context of “Losing it all should not disrupt your lifestyle or family responsibilities”. Thus if you multiply MYR173 by ten it merely means your investment exposure is MYR1730. What is important is that you will have MYR18,270 to invest in the next legs up as gold rallies as in the period December 2010 to August 2011.

Below are the published dates of Bespoke gold investing feature #10 to #29 in Hope Tribute Malaysia and some highlights.

                           Published date           Hash Tag / Highlights

Bespoke feature #10       12/1/17            Prudence in Bespoke Gold Investing

Let’s analyze in EP values (MYR Equivalent Price per gram). Continued high rates of drilling technology improvement could increase well productivity / the increased supply from the shale oil sector would lower crude price – a negative factor for the Malaysian currency.

Bespoke feature #11         8/2/17           What to watch in 2017 Bespoke Gold Investing

The 30-year US Treasury yield indices would paint a fair picture reflective of the U.S. economy as a whole / Generally when the USD plunges a lot, gold rallies / How China will manage trade, looming debt issues and the currency level.

Bespoke feature #12       16/3/17           The rate hike by 25 basis points on 15 March / U.S. Fed funds rate will be taken in stride by investors.

Bespoke feature #13       22/3/17          There comes a time . . China is now ready to reform the world order)  . . . No holding back when gold trading is done with physical gold. Our take on the China factor. . . . See no wall but the upside bias horizon. Ceteris paribus it is better to buy when the local currency is comparatively stronger. Any “Buy” leverage on the comparatively stronger local currency still cannot compensate a world price dip

Bespoke feature #14       29/4/17          Interesting times we live in . . Our take on the US-China intervention rhetoric re North Korea.

Bespoke feature #15       17/5/17         Elaborating on world gold price approximation and GMT primary standard time inferences. Also basis points explanation in a layman perspective.

Bespoke feature #16       8/6/17           The 1st June flip flop and the trajectory it is on. Referencing a technical chart known as ‘Game Changing’ Trend Line. Theresa May might not get Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 majority of more than 20% parliament seats but her focus on Brexit and a changing world; and dealing with fast-changing technology point to another notch up on world order reform.

Bespoke feature #17      18/9/17          This is a third interim gold investing update after Bespoke Investing feature #14. There are still more than thee months before 2018 when we expect some signs of a reformed world order to crystallize. The EU currency and cross member nation rules just cannot jive with sovereign nation-states’ unique homeland needs, social-economic priorities and fundamental sovereign rights of actual control of movement across state’s borders. Brexit is the right course and will be a positive factor in the development for a new world order.

Bespoke feature #18      28/12/17         Would there be any upshot of world order reform kicking in come 2018? Petrodollars have dominated the global energy markets for more than 40 years and China would change that by setting up oil-futures trading in the yuan, which will be fully convertible into gold on the Shanghai and Hong Kong foreign exchange markets. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and its subsidiary, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) would have a positive impact on precious gold regaining its true value in world markets.

Bespoke feature #19      12/1/18          . . . Who will second guess if Trump will establish a good relationship with Kim Jong Un? Of course, it always will be on a basis of strength . . . In essence bespoke investing is on the opposite polar end of seedy ponzi platforms like Bitcoin transactions . . . Updated EP value (MYR Equivalent Price per gram) reference table.

Bespoke feature #20       24/3/18         . . . The addendum also rambled about an opinion piece which concluded that President Trump “gets top marks f or courage and cunning, and has emerged against (nearly) all expectations as a formidable figure in American politics.” . . . China’s quiet negotiations with the United States also showed its practical virtuosity. On internationalizing its currency, China’s crude futures made a roaring start on Monday 26 March 2018 and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) global price benchmark would be alongside Brent and WTI crude .

Bespoke feature #21        3/4/18       In the United States, what could cats do if their master was crazy?

Bespoke feature #22      25/4/18     The focus of China’s Belt and Road construction projects would purportedly raise the living standards of the people where development was rolled out to.

Bespoke feature #23      25/7/18          Simple as A, B . . Xi

Bespoke feature #24     16/8/18         Technically it’s ‘Outlier economic & bespoke investing outlook #24′ . . hashtag Dr Mahathir’s China visit. There no longer is a need for a UK’s “special partnership” with the European Union and it’s a positive factor development for a reformed world order. Each nation ought to abide only by its own laws and unique homeland needs.

Bespoke feature #25      19/9/18         . . . tired of winning?

Bespoke feature #26      16/8/18        Preserving your wealth through good times and bad don’t ignore gold for it’s a sure bet asset that offers protection in bad times. You can’t create gold at will, unlike paper cash. 

Bespoke feature #27       4/12/18          . . ready for the next legs

Bespoke feature #28     18/2/19          referencing Bespoke feature #27, liquidated gold holdings on 27.2.19 to place hold money elsewhere.

Bespoke feature #29       6/3/19            closure on gold investing

Please peruse the listing of postings not directly relating to investing in the Contents & Preface to blog posting updated on 22 March 2019.

 

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